June 2 Elections in Mexico: What’s at Stake for Mexicans

On June 2, 2024, Mexico will hold historic elections, considered the largest the country has ever had. In this electoral process, various federal and local positions will be chosen.

At the federal level, citizens will vote to elect the next President of the Republic, as well as 128 senators and 500 federal deputies. This election will also mark the end of Andrés Manuel López Obrador's term, as he will step down on October 1 due to a political-electoral reform.

Additionally, in the local elections, governorships will be renewed in nine states: Mexico City, Jalisco, Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla, Morelos, Guanajuato, and Yucatán. Thousands of local positions will also be elected, including state congresses, municipal presidencies, mayorships, and syndicatures.

The electoral process has been organized so that campaigns officially began on March 1 and will conclude on May 29. Polling stations will be open from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., and preliminary results will be announced starting at 8:00 p.m. on the same day.

This electoral event is crucial not only because of the magnitude of the positions at stake but also because of the impact it will have on the country's politics and governance in the coming years.

Deciding Not to Vote for Morena

Choosing not to vote for Morena in the upcoming elections can be based on several factors highlighted by critics and analysts. Here are some of the most notable reasons:

1. Economic Management: Critics have pointed out that Morena's economic policies have created uncertainty in the business sector and affected foreign investment. The cancellation of the Texcoco airport and the energy reform are examples of controversial decisions seen as detrimental to Mexico's business climate.

2. Public Security: Morena's administration has been criticized for its handling of public security. Despite promises to reduce violence, homicide rates and other violent crimes have remained high during their term. The security strategy, based on the creation of the National Guard, has been questioned for its effectiveness.

3. Corruption: Although one of Morena's pillars has been the fight against corruption, there have been cases and scandals within their administration that have generated distrust. Some Morena officials have been implicated in corruption cases, contradicting the party's official discourse on transparency and honesty.

4. Social and Health Policies: The management of the COVID-19 pandemic has been criticized due to the lack of a clear and coherent strategy, and the perception of a late and disorganized response. Additionally, social welfare policies, though well-intentioned, have been seen by some as insufficient or poorly implemented.

5. Political Polarization: The divisive and confrontational rhetoric used by some Morena leaders has contributed to greater political polarization in the country. This division can hinder the cooperation and consensus needed to advance crucial national development issues.

Concerns About Democracy

Some critical voices in Mexico have expressed concerns about the future of democracy if Morena wins the elections again. These concerns focus on several key points:

1. Concentration of Power: One of the most cited concerns is the tendency of Morena and its leader, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), to centralize power. This includes efforts to reform the judicial system and other autonomous institutions, such as the National Electoral Institute (INE). Critics argue that the concentration of power in the Executive could weaken the democratic checks and balances necessary to maintain a balanced and transparent government.

2. Weakening of Autonomous Institutions: Morena's proposed reforms have included changes in the structure and functioning of autonomous institutions, like the INE. Critics argue that these reforms could undermine the independence of these institutions, essential for ensuring free and fair elections.

3. Attacks on Press Freedom: Another concern is Morena's relationship with the press. AMLO has been critical of media outlets he considers adversarial, and there have been incidents of harassment against journalists. A hostile environment for the press can limit freedom of expression and access to truthful and balanced information, which is fundamental for a healthy democracy.

4. Populism and Polarization: AMLO's populist style has been accused of exacerbating political polarization. This can lead to a deep division in society, where politics becomes a game of "us versus them." Such polarization can make it difficult to engage in dialogue and consensus necessary to solve national problems effectively and democratically.

5. Threats to Democratic Continuity: Some critics fear that a continued victory for Morena could lead to structural changes that put democratic continuity at risk. This includes the possibility of constitutional reforms that could extend presidential terms or remove important restrictions on reelection, elements that are fundamental to avoiding authoritarianism.

Comparing Mexico to Venezuela

Comparing the situation in Mexico under Morena's leadership with the beginning of the dictatorship in Venezuela under Hugo Chávez provides perspective on current concerns and potential future risks. Here are some key similarities and differences:

Similarities:

1. Concentration of Power:

   • Venezuela: Hugo Chávez, after assuming the presidency in 1999, began consolidating power by restructuring state institutions, including changes to the Constitution to expand his powers and extend his term. The National Assembly was dominated by his party, facilitating the approval of laws that strengthened his control.

   • Mexico: Under Morena and AMLO, there have been attempts to modify the structures of autonomous institutions like the INE and the Judiciary, raising concerns about a possible concentration of power in the Executive. Electoral reform proposals have been seen as efforts to control independent bodies essential for democracy.

2. Press Harassment:

   • Venezuela: Chávez implemented a policy of confrontation with the media, closing critical channels and stations, and creating state media to spread his propaganda. This severely limited press freedom and information diversity in the country.

   • Mexico: AMLO has been critical of media outlets he perceives as adversarial, using his daily platform to discredit specific journalists and media. While it hasn't reached the level of state censorship seen in Venezuela, this hostile environment raises concerns about press freedom and the media's ability to operate without intimidation.

3. Political Polarization:

   • Venezuela: Chávez used a populist and divisive discourse to consolidate his support base, creating a "us versus them" narrative that deeply divided Venezuelan society. This polarization made dialogue and cooperation between different political and social sectors difficult.

   • Mexico: AMLO has also adopted a populist style and has polarized Mexican politics, fostering a division between his supporters and those he considers opponents or part of "conservatism." This has created a tense and divided political environment.

Differences:

1. Economic Context:

   • Venezuela: Chávez inherited an oil-dependent economy and used high oil prices to finance his social policies. However, the lack of economic diversification and poor management led to a severe economic crisis when oil prices dropped.

   • Mexico: The Mexican economy is more diversified than Venezuela's, though it faces significant challenges. Morena's economic policy decisions, such as project cancellations and energy reform, have generated uncertainty, but the impact has not reached the crisis levels seen in Venezuela.

2. Democratic Institutions:

   • Venezuela: Chávez quickly transformed the country's democratic institutions, weakening checks and balances and the independence of powers. The National Assembly and Supreme Court became tools of the Executive.

   • Mexico: Despite criticisms and concerns, Mexican democratic institutions like the INE and the Supreme Court of Justice still maintain significant independence and have resisted some attempts at control. However, continued pressure for reform could change this situation in the future.

3. International Reaction:

   • Venezuela: The international community reacted with sanctions and condemnations to the Chávez and later Maduro regimes due to human rights violations and the erosion of democracy.

   • Mexico: While there have been international criticisms of some of AMLO's policies, Mexico still maintains active diplomatic relations and has not faced sanctions similar to those imposed on Venezuela. The international perception of Mexico remains more favorable by comparison.

While there are concerning similarities between the start of Chávez's government in Venezuela and Morena's current government in Mexico, especially in terms of power concentration and political polarization, there are also significant differences in economic context, the resilience of democratic institutions, and international reaction. It is crucial for Mexican citizens and institutions to remain vigilant to protect democratic foundations and prevent the country from following a similar trajectory to Venezuela.